Javelina acquire Hamilton, trade Zimmermann and Moore

The Winter Meeting officially opened last night and the Julian Javelina promptly announced the completion of three trades.  In an effort to reshape their roster the Javelina have traded starting pitchers Jordan Zimmermann (2/14) and Matt Moore (3/14) for draft picks and acquired slugging outfielder Josh Hamilton.

The biggest of the three moves was the addition of Josh Hamilton who, despite struggling through much of 2013, still managed to hit 21 home runs and drive in 79 runs.  Sources close to the team have suggested that the team felt 2014 was a make or break season in terms of winning a title with its current roster and chose to go "all in" by trading pick 2.11 for the explosive lefty.  The source said the team felt Hamilton had the ability to outperform any outfielder who may be available at 2.11 and were dead set on adding a fourth outfielder before the draft.

In addition to adding Hamilton the Javelina also traded Jordan Zimmermann and Matt Moore for fourth and sixth round picks, respectively.  Zimmermann, who won 19 games in 2013, wound up going to the Olivet Killer Eagles for pick 4.3 in the 2014 draft.  Moore wound up landing in Springfield in exchange for pick 6.10.  Both moves were made with the intent of adding picks and providing some additional contract flexibility heading into the draft.

As a result of the three moves the Javelina will head into the draft with seven open contract spots, allowing them to sign as many as five new players.  It will also give them two extensions, which are expected to be used on some combination of Shin Soo Choo, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton and Jose Bautista.

Julian Trades Viciedo, Adds Depth and Speed

Late Friday night the Julian Javelina made a somewhat surprising trade, sending slugging young outfielder Dayan Viciedo, short stop Brandon Crawford and starting pitcher Jason Vargas to the Michigan Miracles in exchange for middle infielder Jed Lowrie and outfielders Nate McLouth and Jeff Francoeur.  The move, which sends Viciedo's 2-year contract to Michigan, was done to fill specific needs for the Javelina.

Viciedo, a 25-year old outfielder coming off of a 25-homer season, spent the majority of the first five weeks of the season on the disabled list nursing an oblique injury.  At the time of his injury he was hitting .235 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, 1 walk and 17 strike outs.  The Javelina drafted him in the 6th round of the recent free agent draft and was expecting big things, but ultimately decided he was more valuable in trade given their current needs.

"Dayan is an exciting young player with plenty of upside," said GM Jamie Hoyle.  "We still see big things for him, but we had some needs we needed to fill and found a good fit.  We wish him well in Michigan."

The trade came down to an opportunity to fill some glaring needs for the Javelina.  First and foremost, the team saw an opportunity to add a player who could help stabilize second base in Aaron Hill's absence.  Lowrie, 29, is eligible at both second and short and sported a .303/.393/.455 slash line with 19 runs, 3 homers, 17 runs batted in and 19 walks at the time of the trade and should prove a solid source of walks, runs and runs batted in.  He will fill in for Aaron Hill and is expected to move to short once Hill is healthy.

In addition, the team lacked speed.  Enter Nate McLouth who, at 31, appears to have been reborn since landing in Baltimore last season.  McLouth was hitting .301/.392/.460 with 28 runs, 3 home runs, 10 runs batted in and 17 walks at the time of the move.  McLouth should provide some much needed speed while also contributing healthy walk and run totals for a team in need of all three.

"The bottom line is, we found ourselves in the unenviable position of needing to shake things up five weeks into the season,"  explained Hoyle.  "Jed and Nate should hit enough home runs to off-set the loss of Dayan's power while making us deeper and more dynamic in terms of walks, runs and steals.  It was really a no-brainer."

Javelina Sign Five

The Julian Javelina announced the signing of five members of their most recent draft class.  With nine players already under contract, many of them extremely productive, the five signees add depth and talent to a core that already had plenty of both.

To the surprise of no one, the team signed third overall draft pick Justin Verlander to a three year contract with a mutual option that could keep him in Julian through the end of the 2016 eMLB season.  The pact is worth $75M and could reach a total value of $105M if the fourth year option is exercised.

Joining Verlander in signing on the dotted line were Shin Soo Choo (2 years, $25M), Jordan Zimmermann (2 years, $19M), Jake Peavy (2 years, $28M), Dayan Viciedo (2 years, $16M).  All four of the aforementioned contracts contain team options for a third year.  

eMLB Pre-Season Predictions: West Division

Final Standings:
1.  Springfield Flying Squirrels
2.  Julian Javelina
3.  North Texas Rangers
4.  Arizona Desert Swarm

Team Observations:

Springfield Flying Squirrels:
This offense is frighteningly good.  While I do expect some regression in Willingham's power totals this year, I think the continued maturation of Freeman and Moustakas combined with a slight bounce back from Pence should help mitigate that somewhat.  There is a ton of power up and down the lineup, they will produce plenty of runs, and they should be competitive in walks.  Even with Trout on the roster there are really only two players capable of swiping 20+ bases.  The bench is a little sketchy, with most of his backups being part-time players on their major league teams.

While I'm not a huge believer in Haren staying healthy and I think Adam over-drafted Minor, I do think a bounce back from Halladay is likely.  If that happens the trio of Halladay, Felix and Wainright should be good enough to off-set inconsistencies from the other two starters.  He shoud get 180-200 strike outs to go with solid ERA and WHIP totals from 60% of his rotation.  The bullpen should be a solid source of strike outs, holds, ERA and WHIP, but saves will be a struggle all season.  There isn't a great deal of depth on the pitching staff outside of Cahill.

Julian Javelina:
I think the key word for my team is balance.  I may not have a collection of bombers, but what I do have is a collection of eight every day players who should hit a minimum of 20 home runs while providing very good run production.  This lineup also has as many as five players who are capable of drawing 60-70 walks and stealing 15 bases apiece.  Ideally I'd like to add a little speed at some point, but overall I like my offense.  I don't have as much depth as I would like, although I do think Aaron Hicks is going to be a sneaky source of speed once he wins the Twins' CF job.  I'll need to find better middle infield depth at some point.

I think from top to bottom I have the best pitching staff in the division.  The lone true wild card in my rotation is CJ Wilson, but I believe his uneven second half was the result of the bone chips in his elbow.    If he bounces back, as I expect he will, I should have five very good pitchers in my starting rotation - three of whom are capable of posting 180+ strike outs.  What sets my pitching staff apart in this division is my bullpen which, as of now, boasts three closers.  While it remains likely that Brandon League could lose his job at some point I do expect Parnell to hold onto the Mets' job over gas can Frank Francisco.

North Texas Rangers:
This is one of the better teams Adrian has had but, as usual, it's fairly top heavy.  He's relying on guys like Kinsler, Votto, Beltre, Kemp and Upton to carry him while the others just chip in where they can.  I don't expect Kemp or Beltre to disappoint, and it's probably likely that Votto bounces back; but Votto was seriously dragging that bad leg in the playoffs so Adrian has to hope he's fully healthy.  I believe Kinsler's days as an elite fantasy player are nearing their end, but he should still be productive.  Adrian's biggest advantage on offense within the division is the speed, with as many as five players capable of stealing 20+ bases.  The depth is pretty good, but much of his bench has undefined roles.

When I look at his rotation I see a collection of injury-riddled players, head cases, and a general lack of strike outs.  I'm not sure I trust Morrow and Hanson to stay healthy, I know I don't trust Holland and Volquez to throw consistent strikes, and I would expect Medlen to come back to earth a little bit.  Personally, I would be very worried about relying on guys like Volquez and Holland.  The bullpen should be pretty good, but he'll have to find more saves somewhere if he wants to contend.  I think Adrian will be trolling for Sp depth much of the year, there are always injuries and he isn't very well equipped to weather more than one short term injury in the rotation.

Arizona Desert Swarm
The key word for this offense is speed.  Lots of it.  This is a team that will have a number of potential trade partners when contenders are looking to fill gaps at the deadline.  There are a couple solid building blocks here; Wright, Rios, and Fowler.  There are also a couple decent stop-gaps in Pierzynski and Beltran.  This offense should score plenty of runs, hit for a solid average and be competitive in steals.  There is precious little power and run production here.  The depth is OK, but there are a few guys with undefined roles.

Josh built a solid pitching foundation for 2014 by taking Price, Niese and Cueto early on.  I happen to think Ricky Romero will bounce back and provide a nice trade chip late in the season.  I think between arm and back injuries, Santant is essentially done being more than a nice fill in.  Josh should be pretty competitive in ERA, WHIP, wins and saves while struggling to compete in strike outs and holds.  I think Josh will be looking for more rotation depth during the season depending on how McDonald and Cole perform.

2013 eMLB Pre-season Predictions: East Division

Final Standings:

1.  Oviedo Knights

2.  Dallas Redbirds

3.  Toldeo Mudhens

4.  Atlantic Heat

Team Observations:

Oviedo Knights:

As is often the case, I think Mike's offensive fire power will eventually win out as it relates to a tight divisional race between he and Doyel.  This offense should be capable of pounding out 5-6 offensive categories most weeks, which is a good thing when looking at the pitching.  There is so much offensive fire power that it almost won't matter that Mike pissed away a 4th round pick, and probably another three year contract, on Carlos Gomez.  Health will be crucial as an injury or two will expose a lack of quality depth.

I know Mike believes he can win without quality starting pitching, but damn.  Granted, he has Hamels, and I do think Anderson will take a step forward this year.  But beyond that there isn't much to be excited about.  Iwakuma is OK, but probably better suited to being rotational depth.  I think the lack of a swing and miss pitch will hurt Millone in the long run.  I'm not sure a good half season makes Hammel worthy of being a regular fantasy SP.  The bullpen should be a good source of strike outs and holds, but the inevitability of Marmol losing his job means there is a lack of saves in the long run.  I think Mike will need Scott Baker to return to form quickly to help hold the rotation together.

Dallas Redbirds:

This is the proto-typical Doyel offense.  Plenty of guys who hit for average and a ton of speed.  His lineup is also likely to be light on power, run production and walks.  If it were me, I would probably find a place to start Garrett Jones.  I think it would probably be in Doyel's best interest to trade one of his speedsters for some additional power.  There is no way he has enough power to be competitive in that category from week to week.  There is some decent depth here.  Doyel desperately needs Ellsbury to return to his MVP form for this offense to work.

This is an atypical Doyel rotation.  Granted, it's top heavy, but slots 3-5 leave something to be desired.  Hellickson doesn't miss any bats at all, which means he has little room for error.  It seems unlikely he will continue to post solid ERA and WHIP totals.  Hughes is OK, but will never be anything special due to inconsistencies with his command.  Lynn needs to continue to develop for this rotation to work.  It looks like the bullpen will be a good source of strike outs and holds, but rumors that Romo will share closing duties means there is no clear-cut source of saves.  The pitching depth is adequate.

Toledo Mudhens:
Pujols, Phillips, Posey and Jennings make for what should be a solid offensive core; there just isn't anything else to get too excited about.  Aside from Jennings this might be the worst outfield in league history.  Sure, there is speed, but not much else.  It looks to me like short stop and third base are also major concerns, particularly third base where it seems likely Gyorko is headed for Tucson to start the season.  This offense will struggle greatly in virtually every offensive category outside of steals and maybe average.  There isn't a great deal of quality depth there either with Hamilton, Olt and Myers unlikely to start the year in the majors.

The starting pitching, which may be among the top three or four in the league, will keep him in games all year.  Obviously, Kershaw, Lee and Gonzalez don't need an introduction.  That's a hell of a trio atop the rotation.  I'm a big fan of Bailey after his second half last season, and I think he's just beginning to scratch the surface.  He was probably the second best pick Brent made in terms of pure value next to Posey.  Bauer, like a third of his offense, is headed back to AAA to start the year.  The bullpen looks solid and should be a good source of strike outs and holds.  The starting pitching depth isn't very good should someone get hurt.

Atlantic Surge:
The offense will be a struggle this year, but should improve as his new contract players progress through their contracts.  The core of Jackson, Rizzo and Middlebrooks would be great for a dynasty league, but my guess is Rizzo and Middlebrooks are at least a year away from being the players Matt needs them to be.  Hunter is starting his decline and his run production will fall off batting second.  Marte is a wildcard who should provide speed and not much else.  The rest of the lineup is essentially replacement players with little upside. There is decent depth to fill in for injured players, but no one you can count on for long stretches.

The pitching - ouch.  Some bad contracts in his first two seasons limited his ability to improve the pitching.  This pitching staff is loaded with injury-plagued, inconsistent pitchers who serve as nothing but a drain on a pitching staff.  There just isn't anything there to count on outside of Greinke.  Floyd and Pelfrey are wildly inconsistent and Harvey is still facing a steep learning curve.  I like Worley a little, but he tends to be inefficient in terms of pitch count.  The bullpen could have three guys with 20+ holds, which will give him some trade chips late in the season.  Cashner could be a major wildcard for him, assuming he wins a rotation spot and proves he can stay on the field.  There is little to no pitching depth in the event of an injury.

eMLB Pre-season Predictions: Texas Division

Final Division Standings:
1.  Hackensack Bulls
2.  Michigan Miracles
3.  South Texas Heat
4.  San Antonio FireAnts

Team Observations:


Hackensack Bulls:
I thought Ben did an excellent job of supplementing an already talented roster with a very patient, steady draft.  With one or two exceptions I thought he did a nice job of squeezing as much value as he could out of each pick.  He has solid power, is likely to lead the division (if not the league) in steals, and should hit for a good average.  I think a stronger third season from Hosmer rounds out the offense nicely.  Losing Granderson hurts, but if he heals quickly he'll still get enough at bats to produce at a high level.

His real strength is his pitching.  He is likely to win the majority, if not all, of the pitching categories from week to week.  His starting five is virtually untouchable if Lincecum bounces back.  I would expect some regression in Jim Johnson this year, but he should still eek 65-80 saves out of his closers.  His pitching depth should provide good trade fodder for late in the year.  Look out for the bullpen if Wilson hooks on with someone and winds up closing late in the year.

2.  Michigan Miracles
Renner started with a good core heading into the draft, and made solid picks to start the draft, but I thought his draft tapered off after the first five or six rounds in terms of value.  The only real question marks in his lineup are Cuddyer (health) and Joyce (playing time).  It seems likely the signing of Kelly Johnson will push Zobrist to RF on a regular basis, which means Joyce becomes the 4th outfielder.  This lineup should pound the ball, but struggle with drawing walks and stealing bases.

I think Renner took too many risks with pitching early in the draft.  I felt be over-drafted guys like Estrada and Griffin fairly early on when, frankly, there were several pitchers still on the board who were just better and more proven.  I'm not crazy about Dickey in the AL East and expect some real regression there.  Renner will need to hope that Corey Luebke makes it back and is able to contribute quickly.  I think the bullpen is going to be very good.

3.  South Texas Heat
As always, Berg focused most of his attention early in the draft on his offense.  Gone is Chris Young, and new to town are Dunn, Ramirez and Kubel.  There is plenty of power and a good balance of people who take walks, but not much speed without a healthy Gardner.  There may be reason for concern over Trumbo's second half, but plenty of reason for optimism over the continued development of Heyward and Kipnis.  Obviously, getting a full season out of Tulo is crucial.  I think it's only a matter of time before Ross replaces Berkman at DH full time.  There is some solid depth here if it's needed.

Like Renner, I think Berg more or less ignored pitching early on.  Granted, he was able to re-draft Sale; but other than that there isn't much certainty in the rotation.  Can Marcum, who like in spite of his fragility, stay healthy?  Can Billingsley, a fantasy tease, stay healthy and become consistent?  And who knows what to expect of Burnett; though it seems likely his numbers will regress in terms of hits, walks, ERA and WHIP.  I do think Berg managed to build a fairly balanced bullpen.

4.  San Antonio FireAnts
I actually like Sankey's team, but this division is so incredibly deep in terms of quality teams that it will be an up-hill battle without a few career seasons mixed in.  There is a lot of power here, the team should hit for a respectable average, and they should draw their share of walks.  Sankey will have to find speed during the season.  The team will be even better with Ruiz returns from suspension and pushes Alonso to the bench.  I think two keys to this offense are Sandoval and Cabrera.  The team needs Sandoval to approach or eclipse 20 HR, and a return of the 20/20 Melky from 2011 would really round out the offense.  The lack of depth will be an issue for this team.

Next to Ben, I think Sankey did a good job of putting together some quality pitching without overpaying too much.  There is plenty of upside in Miley and Parker, and Jackson is a nice workhorse. I think it's a matter of time before McCarthy replaces Nolasco.  If Garcia is healthy and returns to form, he has the makings of a solid rotation, though it may be light in strike outs.  He only has one closer, but he has a ton of solid MRP capable of providing holds.

Overall:
Ben's team is loaded, especially if Hosmer takes a step forward this year.  His team will probably really take off when Grandy returns.  I don't think there is much separating Berg and Renner in the standings; they'll bot hit a ton and have weeks where their pitching really hurts them.  I think Sankey could surprise some people in this division, but only if he stays on top of things and makes the changes he needs to late in the season.  The advantage Berg and Renner have is they are extremely active and willing to make tough decisions to improve their team.  We don't really know for sure if we can say that about Ben and Sankey has never been extremely active in-season.

eMLB Pre-Season Predictions: Great Lakes Division

Final Division Standings:
1.  Gaylord
2.  Mid Michigan
3.  Olivet
4.  Charlotte

Team Observations:

Gaylord:
There is a lot of power here which should help them compete in home runs, runs and runs batted in all year.  A general lack of speed will need to be addressed, as will what I expect to be a lack of overall production at third base.  I'm not sure there is enough quality depth to overcome an injury or two, particularly at third or in the outfield.

I like Samardzija/Shields/Kennedy atop the rotation.  There is a lack of depth in the starting pitching that will be a problem if Garza doesn't get healthy.  I don't trust the bullpen, which is especially true of the closers.  There is no telling how long Axford keeps his job and Rodney is a lock to regress.

Mid Michigan:
Again, a lot of power and run production here.  This team should hit for a solid average from week to week.  Not much speed here, which should be a point of focus later in the season.  Not a lot of depth in the outfield, but otherwise a decent bench.  I would expect Murphy to claim the UTL job sooner rather than later; I don't think Plouffe will come close to matching his power totals from 2012.

I'm not crazy about the starting pitching, mainly because I don't think you can trust Sanchez and Scherzer, who are the sole source of strike outs.  Moving Champman to the rotation hurts more than it helps, assuming he makes the transition, because it eliminates a dominant closer and replaces him with a SP who is likely to be limited in terms of innings this year.  A lack of starting pitching depth will need to be addressed.

Olivet:
I had a hard time picking a third place team in this division, but I went with Olivet because I think their offense will have better balance.  There is promise (Craig, Lawrie, Cozart, Reddick), and a solid veteran presence (Doumit, LaRoche, Hart) on offense.  Growth from Cain and a bounce back from Young improves the speed.  There is just enough depth to weather a few injuries, so long as they aren't long term.

The rotation doesn't look great on paper, but I think it will outperform projections.  I think Santana will rebound, he's too talented to continue pitching at that level.  Friers seems likely to continue his growth and be a solid source of strikeouts.  Cap is steady - keep an eye on Phelps as a breakout candidate.  The 'pen should provide strike outs, holds and solid ERA/WHIP figures.  He's light on saves, but that isn't an issue unless he contends late into the season.  I like the SP depth.

Charlotte:
I'm not sure there is much to be excited about outside of Miggy, Harper, Mauer and Cespedes.  There isn't much power outside of those four and there are a number of serious question marks.  There isn't much speed, and many of these guys don't take many walks.  There are a ton of major injury risks to worry about.  The depth is OK, as long as he doesn't have to rely on any of them for an extended period.

The pitching is tough to trust from top to bottom.  Dempster is going to struggle in the AL East and  Johnson seems likely to be hurt at some point.  Lester, while a head case, remains talented and could rebound unless he decides he doesn't like his new manager.  Richard is steady, but doesn't miss many bats.  Kuroda should be a steadying influence.  The bullpen is atrocious.  Outside of Hanrahan, everyone of them is a virtual gas can and major drain on ERA and WHIP.

Overall:
Wagner and Keith are the cream of the crop in this division, so activity will ultimately decide who wins the division.  Wagner is always active in-season, hopefully Keith is ready to take that next step.  Larry was able to lay the foundation of his team, but will need to make some trades and have a good draft next year to complete the rebuild.  I never know what to make of Broskey's teams, mainly because they seem to change on a weekly basis.  I think Broskey may be faced with trading what he considers core players during the season in order to turn over his contracts and prepare for next season.