Monday, January 25, 2010

Javelina Methodically Building Winning Foundation

When the Javelina began stripping down their team this off-season it was with one thing in mind; securing the pieces upon which they could build a championship contending team. One by one they traded away stars and scrubs alike, replacing them with draft picks instead of new players. Now, just three picks into the 2010 Free Agent Draft, one can see that foundation beginning to take shape.

First, the team needed a cornerstone. Specifically, they needed to fill a gaping hole at the hot corner. They found their man in Ryan Zimmerman, a slugging 25-year old third baseman coming off a career year as he enters his physical prime. Some say GM Jamie Hoyle overdrafted Zimmerman, but the GM is adamant that that Zimmerman is just the type of run producer around whom a winning team is built.

"We got our guy, and that's all that matters," says Hoyle. "After years of 'making do' with guys like Kouzmanoff, Blalock and Lowell, this team finally has a run-producing third baseman in his prime; and we couldn't be happier about it."

Having added a true slugger to their order, the team was able to focus on adding more well-rounded talents with it's next two picks. In Brian Roberts and Shin Soo-Choo, Hoyle was able to add a pair of multidimensional offensive threats who are just as likely to steal a base as hit a home run. Perhaps even more importantly, both should be superb sources of runs themselves.

"This team has historically either had speed or power, we've never really had a lineup full of guys who could provide both," explained Hoyle. "With Roberts, Choo and McCutchen, we feel we have three talented players who can impact a game with both their ability to create and drive in runs. It's a welcomed change."

Still, Hoyle recognizes there are no easy fixes.

"Do we think we're better now than at the end of last year? Absolutely," said Hoyle. "But having said that, we have a long way to go and more players to add. To expect us to win this year is probably little unrealistic, but a good draft this season will put us in position to contend in 2011."

Who else is Hoyle targeting? That's for him to know and everyone else to find out.

"We have a strategy mapped out, and so far so good. Obviously we can't expect to get all of 'our guys', but we'll get a few more; we just need to stay patient and stick to the plan."



Saturday, January 23, 2010

2010 eMLB Mock Draft #4

With the latest trade between the Miracles and a Blacksox, it looks like it's time to update my mock again. Here is how I see it going down.

1.1 Wisconsin Brewers: Evan Longoria, 3B
The best player available in the draft gets a 5-year contract. Can't go wrong here.

1.2 Julian Javelina: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
I have often had to survive with less than stellar 3B, and I am tired of it. Zimmerman and Longoria have nearly identical skill sets and ceilings. Zim gets a lengthy contract as soon as his name is announced.

1.3 Michigan Miracles: Ian Kinsler, 2B
Berg said it best, "Renner has nothing to lose by taking Kinsler at 3, and he knows it." It doesn't hurt that Kinsler is a 30/30 guy at second base and is still only 27. If it weren't for the repetitive injuries and inconsistencies, I might take him myself.

1.4 Carolina Yankees: Joey Votto, 1B
Could be considered a 5-year player by some, but definitely a great 3-year player. He gets a little better every year, and may be on the verge of 35 HR in 2010. I'll say it again, he reminds me a lot of Adrian Gonzalez.

1.5 South Texas Heat: Brandon Phillips, 2B
When it comes down to it, I just think Phillips is a better player than Youkilis, and Berg knows it. Having Wright and Phillips locked up for the next 2-3 years is not a bad thing.

1.6 Dallas Redbirds: Zack Greinke, SP
The first pitcher off the board goes to - wait for it - Doyel. No real surprise, Doyel has always been all about SP. He gets his man. Thankfully for Doyel, having Howard on his roster prevents him from making the previously discussed mistake of giving Greinke a 5-year deal.

1.7 Springfield Flying Squirrels of Republic: Kevin Youkilis, 3B
Youk is probably the safest pick with the least upside so far in this draft. He's probably reached his ceiling at 29, and the lineup surrounding him is't as good as it's been, but he can still hit. Expect maybe a slight regression in power and RBI totals.

1.8 Mid-Michigan Tigers: Justin Verlander, SP
It's not a major need for Keith, but the heart wants what the heart wants. Keith takes the hometown favorite without hesitation and gives him a 3-year contract.

1.9 North Texas Rangers: Felix Hernandez, SP
Adrian has been trying to leverage this pick into a chance to draft Kinsler or Votto since the moment he got it, but the asking prices are too steep. That plus the recent acquisition of Jason Bay changes his needs a bit. It gives him the flexibility to take the best pitcher on the board and build his staff around him. Adrian has been busy all off-season; will it pay off?

1.10 Encinitas Beach Bums: Bobby Abreu, OF
I think Darren's best bet here is to take the one remaining outfielder who has a history for filling all six offensive categories. Sure, Abreu is getting old, but he hasn't showed signs of slowing down. .300, 15 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, 100BB, 30 SB is nothing to sneeze at in this game.

1.11 Wisconsin Brewers: Carlos Lee, OF
Storlie needs an outfielder with pop. My guess is he takes the one with whom he is the most familiar - the former Brewer. At this point in the round, there is nothing wrong with steady, consistent production from an OF.

1.12 Encinitas Beach Bums: Adam Jones, OF
Having taken old reliable Bobby Abreu, Darren now has the flexibility to swing for the fences a little on a familiar name. Jones is loaded with potential, and will probably be set for a breakout in the next year or two. Not a bad pick.

1.13 Olivet Killer Eagles: Dan Haren, SP
I have to think Larry grabs the familiar SP and locks him up for 2-3 years. Can't blame him if he does.

1.14 Julian Javelina: TBD


1.15 New Jersey Mets: Brian Roberts, 2B
Reynolds gets his (old) man. :)

1.16 ES Blacksox: Billy Butler, 1B
Butler helped ES to a title, and now he is brought back. Not a bad get this late in the first.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

2010 eMLB Mock Draft #3

With a few more changes, it's time for another mock draft.

Lots of changes in the order of things in the first round since my last mock draft, so I thought I'd update things a little. Here is how I see things going down:

1. New Jersey Refuse Rehabilitation Clinic of Wisconsin: Evan Longoria
This is a stone cold lock. Storlie would be a fool to take anyone else.

2. Julian Javelina: Ryan Zimmerman
There has been speculation that I would take Votto here. While he is enticing for sure, there are always 1B to be found in this league; 3B is much harder to fill in my opinion (unless you collect them like Berg). Zimmerman is my pick, book it.

3. Michigan Miracles: Ian Kinsler
I always thought Renner would take Kinsler, and his trading Uggla just cinches it for me. Much like when he took Rios, he's drafting based entirely on upside here. That can get you in trouble (see: Rios), but I think it works out for Renner. A solid 3-year guy at a tough position to fill.

4. Carolina Yankees: Joey Votto
We know Wofford won't take a Red Sox with his first pick, so Youk is not an option. There have been rumors about him taking a SP here, but I think that's a smoke screen. His best two options if things pan out as expected are either Votto or Phillips. Phillips represents more of a need, but with Berkman getting older (34 in two weeks) and showing some wear and tear, Votto seems like the way to go.

5. South Texas Heat: Brandon Phillips
Berg wants Votto, wouldn't mind Youk, but needs Phillips for the long haul with Zobrist a FA at the end of the year. He already has a lot of interchangeable parts at 1B/3B/DH, so I think Berg feels comfortable taking the 25/25 2B and locking him up for three years.

6. Dallas Rebirds: Zack Greinke
Doyel has Ryan Howard under contract, he just traded Brandon Webb, and he has historically valued pitching over offense. Oh, happy day - Steve gets his man. I'm guessing me moves to keep him around for at least three years, too.

7. Springfield Flying Squirrels of Republic: Kevin Youkilis
Springfield would do well to get Youk here and play him at 3B. I don't think he takes a pitcher here, and he'll value the best available bat. Hard to argue with a 25-30 HR 3B/1B/UTIL guy at #7. Votto doesn't make sense because of the presence of Tex here, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely.

8. Mid Michigan Tigers: Justin Verlander
This could really be Verlander, Haren, Felix - all are of similar skill sets. Something tells me the "Michigan" in Keith convinces him to grab Verlander while he can. This would give him a top three of Lee, Verlander, Dempster - not bad.

9. North Texas Rangers: Andre Ethier
Adrian is so predictable. He clearly traded up here hoping for one of three scenarios to develop - (1) Votto falls to 9, (2) swing a deal with Renner for a shot at Kinsler, (3) swing a deal with Berg or Wofford for a shot at Votto. Just a hunch, but none of the above happens here. He stays put and opts to get the best young power hitter available at this spot. Ethier will get a three year deal from Adrian as soon as he sets foot on North Texas.

10. Encinitas Beach Bums: Felix Hernandez
I think Darren takes Felix here no matter what. He's building for 2011 and 2012 right now, so taking guys like Carlos Lee, Ichiro, or Abreu don't make sense because they are all aging some. Felix is young, strong, and there isn't any uncertainty about what he'll be two or three years down the line.

11. Wisconsin Brewers: Carlos Lee
Storlie probably wanted Andre Ethier here, but he's not available. He doesn't need pitching with Peavy, Cain and Lilly under contract. He does need another solid outfielder. Abreu and Ichiro don't provide enough power for him, so he goes with a familiar face. Lee is a little risky as a 3-year guy in my opinion, but not enough to preclude Storlie from making him one.

12. Encinitas Beach Bums: Adam Jones
I think Darren takes Jones and slaps a 3-year contract on him. Jones has a lot of promise, but is still figuring things out. His power is still developing, and he doesn't run as much as some would like. I think he ascends to 20/20 this year and bares a similarity to Mike Cameron, just with a higher average. I am not sure he has the power to hit more than 25, but time will tell.

13. Olivet Killer Eagles: Dan Haren
Yet another team sticking with a familiar name. Haren is a stud, and will make for a killer 1-2 punch atop Larry's rotation. This is another SP who get land a 3-year contract.

14. Julian Javelina: TBD
Plenty to choose from here. I could land a stud SP, a promising young 1B, a good outfielder. Only time will tell.

15. New Jersey Mets: Brian Roberts
I think pitching makes the most sense, and is a clear need for Mike, but he will go with his favorite 30+ 2B. Not that he's a bad pick, but more of a 2-year guy at this point.

16. ES Blacksox: Tommy Hanson
Hanson might be the hottest name heading into this draft. He's young, gets plenty of hype, and has great stuff. Like I said, ES has a history or taking exciting young pitchers toward the middle or bottom of round one (Felix, Hamels). I think he snags Hanson here without hesitation.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

2010 eMLB Mock Draft - UPDATED

Lots of changes in the order of things in the first round since my last mock draft, so I thought I'd update things a little. Here is how I see things going down:

1. New Jersey Refuse Rehabilitation Clinic of Wisconsin: Evan Longoria
This is a stone cold lock. Storlie would be a fool to take anyone else.

2. Julian Javelina: Ryan Zimmerman
There has been speculation that I would take Votto here. While he is enticing for sure, there are always 1B to be found in this league; 3B is much harder to fill in my opinion (unless you collect them like Berg). Zimmerman is my pick, book it.

3. Michigan Miracles: Ian Kinsler
I always thought Renner would take Kinsler, and his trading Uggla just cinches it for me. Much like when he took Rios, he's drafting based entirely on upside here. That can get you in trouble (see: Rios), but I think it works out for Renner. A solid 3-year guy at a tough position to fill.

4. Carolina Yankees: Brandon Phillips
Lots of rumors swirling about Wofford wanting a pitcher here, but it doesn't add up when you look at his roster. Nope, he goes with the most dynamic bat left at a scarce position. A very, very good pick here.

5. South Texas Heat: Zack Greinke
Berg has been saying he'll take Youkilis here, but neither Youk nor Votto makes much sense when you look at his roster. With Morrow and Kazmir both under contract and under-performing, taking a SP here makes a ton of sense. It's not Berg's style, but it makes sense. Does Berg dare sign two historically fragile SP to 3-year contracts? Don't rule out seeing Berg move back a handful of spots and picking up and extra draft pick.

6. Dallas Rebirds: Justin Verlander
Doyel has Ryan Howard under contract, he just traded Brandon Webb, and he has historically valued pitching over offense. He has his sights set on Greinke, but he's not available in this scenario. I say he takes Verlander and slides him into Webb's 3-year slot.

7. Springfield Flying Squirrels of Republic: Kevin Youkilis
Springfield would do well to get Youk here and play him at 3B. I don't think he takes a pitcher here, and he'll value the best available bat. Hard to argue with a 25-30 HR 3B/1B/UTIL guy at #7. Votto doesn't make sense because of the presence of Tex here, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely.

8. Mid Michigan Tigers: Joey Votto
I have to think Keith was jonesing for Verlander here, but he's not available. He has Lee and Dempster under contract, so pitching isn't really a need. Being able to pair Cabrera and Votto at 1B and DH is a deadly combo - I'd point out that a similar pair (Gonzalez/Morneau) won me a title two years ago.

9. Encinitas Beach Bums: Andre Ethier
There is some thought that Ethier is a top five or six pick in this draft, but I think this is a good spot for him. Darren gets a rising young star capable of 30 HR and 100 RBI right away to build his offense around. A solid 3-year guy for sure, but a reach as a 5-year guy in my opinion.

10. Encinitas Beach Bums: Felix Hernandez
Having secured a "building block" bat already, I have to think Darren will jump at the chance to land a true ace. While it's not my style, it wouldn't surprise me to see Darren lock Felix into a 3-year deal.

11. Wisconsin Brewers: Carlos Lee
Storlie probably wanted Andre Ethier here, but he's not available. He doesn't need pitching with Peavy, Cain and Lilly under contract. He does need another solid outfielder. Abreu and Ichiro don't provide enough power for him, so he goes with a familiar face. Lee is a little risky as a 3-year guy in my opinion, but not enough to preclude Storlie from making him one.

12. Encinitas Beach Bums: Adam Jones
I think Darren takes Jones and slaps a 3-year contract on him. Jones and Ethier could make a very good outfield tandem by the time this team is ready to contend - possibly as soon as 2011.

13. Olivet Killer Eagles: Dan Haren
Yet another team sticking with a familiar name. Haren is a stud, and will make for a killer 1-2 punch atop Larry's rotation. This is another SP who get land a 3-year contract.

14. Julian Javelina: TBD
Plenty to choose from here. I could land a stud SP, a promising young 1B, a good outfielder. Only time will tell.

15. New Jersey Mets: Jon Lester
Taking a pitcher this early is not Mike's MO, but it makes sense. His pitching has cost him in the playoffs the last two years, so now is as good a time as any to add a horse.

16. ES Blacksox: Tommy Hanson
Hanson might be the hottest name heading into this draft. He's young, gets plenty of hype, and has great stuff. Like I said, ES has a history or taking exciting young pitchers toward the middle or bottom of round one (Felix, Hamels). I think he snags Hanson here without hesitation.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

2010 eMLB Mock Draft: Picks 1.13 - 1.16

Picks 1.13 - 1.16

Pick 1.13: Olivet Killer Eagles - Andre Ethier
I think this pick comes down to Ethier or Shin Soo Choo for Larry, assuming Ethier falls this far. Ethier provides more power. He is also the safer 3-year player given Choo's mandatory military service (2 years before age 30) with the Korean Army. Unless Choo's team wins gold in the Asian Games this winter/spring, chances are he could be back in Korea as soon as 2011.
Projections: .275, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 90 R.

Pick 1.14: Julian Javelina - To Be Determined
I could go a number of ways here. There will be plenty of good pitching available here, and a guy like Jon Lester (a personal favorite) would be hard to pass on. There is a chance Brian Roberts is here based on this mock draft, and opening my draft with two players like Zimmerman and Roberts would be enticing. Other possibilities might include Bobby Abreu or Billy Butler. Stay tuned.

Pick 1.15: New Jersey Mets - Brian Roberts
I think this is probably a safe bet, assuming Roberts is available. It would give Mike a middle infield capable of stealing 90-100 bases. Another option may be drafting the best available outfielder. I think Roberts would be hard to pass on.
Projections: .285, 11 HR, 65 RBI, 30 SB, 90 R.

Pick 1.16: ES Blacksox - Tommy Hansen
When ever ES is on the board, I have to think he's going to take the best young player on the board. ES his team around young pitching and speed last season, and I'd expect him to do the same. This is the perfect spot in which to take a young pitcher, which is John's MO all the way. I say he grabs Hansen and gives him a three year deal like he did with Felix and Hamels in years past.
Projections: 3.10, 14 W, 175 K, 1.20 WHIP, 180 IP.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

2010 eMLB Mock Draft: Picks 1.9 - 1.12

Picks 1.9 - 1.12

Pick 1.9: Encinitas Beach Bums - Brandon Phillips
This seems like the perfect place for Phillips to land. Darren needs bodies, but he doesn't need one of the top 3B since he has ARod. Phillips gives Darren a solid 25/25 guy at a key position. Phillips probably shouldn't fall this far, but if he does Darren won't complain.
Projections: .275, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 85 R, 25 SB.

Pick 1.10: Rochester Red Sox - Felix Hernandez
Rich is loaded with bats, but he needs pitching and knows it. He needs a horse to lead his staff, and I think Hernandez is his man. I am not a fan of giving SP 3-year deals, but I could see Rich doing just that.
Projections: 16 W, 2.95 ERA, 220 K, 1.20 WHIP

Pick 1.11: Wisconsin Brewers - Ichiro Suzuki
Having traded away Sizemore and Reyes, Storlie needs an outfielder and he needs speed. He gets both with Ichiro and gives him a 3 year deal. While Ichiro doesn't offer much power, he does plenty of other things to bring value to a fantasy team.
Projections: .320, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 110 R, 30 SB

Pick 1.12: San Antonio Fire Ants: Dan Haren
Sankey has a few needs, and taking a pitcher this early isn't one of them, but it might be hard to pass on a top three of Santana, Johnson and Haren. He'd win 4/6 pitching categories each week.
Projections: 2.90, 15, 220, 1.15

2010 eMLB Mock Draft: Picks 1.5 - 1.8

Picks 1.5 - 1.8

Pick 1.5: South Texas Heat - Joey Votto
Berg is adamant that he'd take Youkilis here, but I don't think that's the case. His roster already has two first basemen on it, but I think he'd move Konerko in a heart beat if it meant replacing him with Votto. The sky is the limit with Votto, who reminds me a lot of Adrian Gonzalez.
Projections: .315, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 70 BB, 85-90 R.


Pick 1.6: Dallas Redbirds - Justin Verlander
Doyel is making noise about taking a SP here, and while it may not be his best play, I think the odds of that increased dramatically after trading Brandon Webb. He replaces the fragile Webb with Verlander. My guess is he slaps a 3-year on Justin.
Projections: 3.33 ERA, 16 W, 240 K, 1.10 WHIP


Pick 1.7: Springfield Flying Squirrels of Republic - Kevin Youkilis
Youk falls farther than he probably should, and Sankey snaps him up without hesitation. There are some concerns with Youk - he may have hit his ceiling, his protection isn't as good, and he's in his 30's - but my guess is he gets a 3-year deal.
Projections: .295, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 70 BB, 85 R.


Pick 1.8: Mid Michigan Tigers - Carlos Lee
He doesn't need Phillips, and if he wanted Ichiro he could have extended him after last season. I think he takes arguably the steadiest, most reliable OF in the draft. Lee isnt a franchise player, but he is awfully productive.
Projections: .300, 27 HR, 95 RBI, 80 R, 40 BB.

2010 eMLB Mock Draft: Picks 1.1 - 1.4

The Winter Meetings started in earnest today, and the draft is fast approaching. That can mean only one thing; it's time for a myriad of mock drafts - most of which will probably be wrong. Here is my attempt at a mock draft for picks 1-8.

Pick 1.1: New Jersey Refuse Relocation Center of Wisconsin (Wisconsin Brewers) - Evan Longoria
This is a no brainer. He is the best available player in this draft, and he's the perfect 5-year candidate. I would expect a modest improvement in plate discipline and walks in 2010, followed by a considerable spike in average and power in 2011. A spike in steals is not out of the question assuming his legs remain heathy.
Projection: .290, 35 HR, 115 RBI, 90 R, 80BB, 12 SB.

Pick 1.2: Julian Javelina - Ryan Zimmerman
Also a no brainer, assuming I don't trade the pick. Zimmerman is a solid 5-year guy himself, but he'll get a 3-year deal from me. Last year was his breakout year, but it was a little uneven. I expect more consistency in the second half and maybe a small increase in power totals.
Projections: .300, 34 HR, 112 RBI, 75 BB, 85 R.

Pick 1.3: Michigan Miracles - Ian Kinsler
Just a hunch, but with Uggla gone I am not buying that Renner takes Youkilis here. My money is on the most tantalizing talent in the draft, who also happens to play one of the toughest positions to fill in the game. Renner's 5-year is full, so my guess is Kinsler slides into a 3-year deal.
Projections: .265, 28 HR, 85 RBI, 30 SB, 60 BB, 90 R.

Pick 1.4: Carolina Yankees - Zack Greinke
Rumor is Wofford is looking at a SP here. I don't necessarily agree with that, but I guess he isn't too high on the offensive talent in this spot (not sure why). Greinke would make sense if that's the case (as would Felix or Verlander).
Projections: 15 W, 2,75 ERA, 230 K, 1.15 WHIP, 215 IP.

Javelina Kick Off Meetings With a Bang

The eMLB winter meetings officially began this morning, and there was no lack of action in Julian. Amid rumors that GM Jamie Hoyle was actively shopping nearly his entire roster, the team today agreed to two deals. First, Hoyle agreed to send starting pitcher Gil Meche, whom he signed to a contract following the 2009 draft, to Gaylord in exchange for pick 10.15 (#159). Then, he agreed to ship slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and starting pitcher Paul Maholm to North Texas in exchange for pick 1.14 and young outfielder Andrew McCutchen.

It's not surprising to see Meche and Maholm go, but many in the league will probably be shocked to see a cornerstone like Gonzalez leave town. While it was not an easy decision to make, it's clear Hoyle made this decision with the future in mind.

"We were in need of two things; contract flexibility and an infusion of talent," explained Hoyle via conference call. "Adrian carried us to our first title, but it was becoming clear to us that it was time to maximize value and add more bodies. We are very excited about Andrew joining the team, and we should get a very solid player at 1.14."

Why did the team part ways with Meche and Maholm? It's pretty simple.

"We weren't going to win with them this year, and we were better off clearing their contracts off the books," said Hoyle. "Hopefully they can help another team win and we can maximize that contract space in improving our own."

Friday, January 8, 2010

Hoyle Stays Busy, Actively Seeking Deals

As is usually the case, the Julian Javelina do not plan to be quiet during the upcoming Winter Meetings. In fact, GM Jamie Hoyle has been hard at work in his attempts to both add and shed contracts. It is widely known that Hoyle has been entertaining trade offers for starting pitchers Gil Meche and Paul Maholm, as well as outfielder Eric Byrnes. In the case of Meche, Hoyle thinks he can extract some value in terms of a draft pick, but he has been open about his desire to move Byrnes and Maholm at all costs.

"Yeah, we're trying to move those three for sure," said Hoyle. "We have six open contracts heading into the draft, so we're in good shape. That said, it wouldn't kill us to open up a couple additional spots for the sake of flexibility."

But that's not all. While Hoyle wouldn't confirm it, several team sources have indicated that the team has been engaged in discussions surrounding Geovany Soto, Yovanni Gallardo, Stephen Drew, and even Adrian Gonzalez. It is clearly unlikely that the team would move that many pieces in one off-season, but it is not out of the question that the team could part with one or two of their big names in the interest of a major rebuilding project.

"Do we want to move Adrian, Stephen, Yo, or Geo? Absolutely not," explained Hoyle. "Having said that, we have to at least listen if someone takes the time to put an offer together. How can we get back to the playoffs if we aren't open minded about additions and subtractions?"

Most people in and around the organization say the two most likely pieces to be moved, if any, are Gonzalez and Gallardo. Why? Simply put, they have more value than anyone else on the roster. Well designed trades involving both players could hasten the rebuilding process significantly.

Stay tuned, it promises to be a busy offseason.