Tuesday, March 8, 2011

eMLB Preseason Power Poll: 1-4

4. Hackensack Bulls (Texas Division Champions, #4 Playoff Seed)

Offensive Outlook: Slightly Above Average
This is a group that will clearly be led by a very good outfield group. I think Werth, Heyward, Rasmus and Davis provide a great, diverse skill set and will keep this team in contention on offense most weeks. I would expect further improvement from both Heyward and Rasmus this season as they continue to mature. Also the combo of Mauer and Pedroia is as good as it gets at their respective positions. If it weren't for a general lack of even league-average production at key spots like 1B, 3B, SS and DH, this might have been one of the better offenses. This team will likely compete in average, runs, and runs batted in. They will probably struggle in steals, HR and BB most weeks.

Pitching Outlook: Slightly Above Average
Two weeks ago this may have been the best pitching staff in the league, but Wainright's injury really hurt them. With both Wainright and Strassburg on the DL for most or all of the year, the Bulls' SP depth took a major hit. Still, it's hard not to like the 1-2 punch of Lester/Latos, and Marcum/Hughes are both pretty darned good too. The key to this rotation will be the #5 spot - there are rumors the Giants might cut Zito in the spring, which would leave Femmel in the unenviable position of counting on Drabek and Hunter week-to-week. I'm not in love with the pen. No one knows what roles Sale and Ogando will play and Jenks is buried in a deep bullpen. Marshall and Rhodes are both solid. I figure this pitching staff will be very competitive in wins, ERA, WHIP and K. I think they will struggle in holds and saves.

Depth Outlook: Iffy
Not a lot of proven, quality depth on the offensive side. The fact is, no one really knows what to expect from guys like Freeman, Freese, Ramos and Lowrie. Even Podsednik's role is in question. If I'm Femmel, I drop the extra MRP and start trolling for SP depth right now.

3. Gaylord Dingers (Great Lakes Division Champions, #3 Playoff Seed)

Offensive Outlook: Slightly Above Average
If you just look at names, the offense looks like a juggernaut. But this isn't 2005 anymore. There are major injury and production concerns swirling around guys like Aramis Ramirez, Posada, Beltran, Furcal, Pena and Roberts. I do think Ramirez, Furcal and Roberts bounce back, but I'm not sold on Beltran's knees and Posada could lose AB's to Montero as the season wears on. Pena will be a big wild card for this offense. I'm not convinced the outfield will hit for enough power for this team to advance much beyond the first round of the playoffs if it remains as-is, which means they will need production from Willingham. Still, this team will compete in average, RBI, runs, walks and SB week to week. I think they struggle in HR.

Pitching Outlook: Average
It looks like Wagner attended the "Mike Reynolds School of Building a Rotation" during the winter. Outside of Cole Hamel and maybe AJ Burnett (and that's a reach), nothing really stands out here. Kennedy could take another step forward this season, but Kuroda and Zambrano are basically league average innings eaters. The bullpen is excellent. K-Rod, Street, and Soria give him the best 3-headed closing combo in the league, and Bard and Betancourt are very good set-up men. If it weren't for the bullpen, this pitching staff would be a mess. As it stands, they will compete in ERA, wins, strikeouts, holds and saves every week. WHIP could be a problem.

Depth Outlook: Decent
Wagner has a ton of infield depth, which is something most lack, but has virtually no outfield depth. He will probably find himself rotating Wilingham and Beltran from the lineup to the DL on a regular basis. The pitching depth is interesting - loaded with solid relievers, and really only two questionable SP to backup a questionable rotation. He will have problems with his pitching all season.


2. Springfield FLying Squirrels of Republic (West Division Champions, #2 Seed)

Offensive Outlook: Explosive
This is a group that has a track record for producing power, speed, average and walks. There is a nice balance of proven vets (Morneau, Uggla, Rollins, Abreu, Beltre), young studs (Bruce, Upton, Montero), and even a solid bounce-back candidate. Assuming they remain healthy, this group will be extremely competitive in nearly every category. In my opinion, Morneau's health will play a huge role in how successful this team is.

Pitching Outlook: High-Risk
Hard to argue with CC and Liriano, but the rest of the starters are every bit as risky and unknown as those two are good. You have to figure Anson has to hit on one of Hellickson, Chacin and Wood - I'm betting on Hellickson. I also think the odds are pretty good that one of Wood and Chacin will likely struggle - I'm betting on Wood. It's a huge risk starting all three. The bullpen is decent, but not great. In my opinion, this team will probably experience its struggles with saves, WHIP and possible ERA much of the season.

Depth Outlook: Thin
Not a ton of infield depth here - quality or otherwise. If Beltre, Prado, Rollins or Morneau misses a lot of time, this team is in trouble. I do like the OF depth. I think Anson will use Garland and Davis more than he expects this season.

1. Rochester Red Sox (East Division Champions, #1 Seed)

Offensive Outlook: Dynamic
Rich has what I think is the most dynamic, diverse offense in the league. His lineup is loaded with power and speed, he should score and drive in a ton of runs, and hit for a decent average. He has well above average players at four of five infield spots and three stud outfielders to carry the offense. One category he will struggle with is walks, as he only has one hitter who drew more than 70 walks in 2010. It's my belief that Mark Reynolds and Brignac will drag down the batting average and I'm not convinced Coghlan is a legitimate fantasy starter.

Pitching Outlook:
I have mixed feeling about the starting rotation. Obviously, it's hard not to like Kershaw, Anderson and Haren. It's reasonable to expect at least modest improvements in Kershaw and Anderson as they mature. Haren struggled in 2010, but will benefit from pitching half his games in Anaheim. In my opinion, the days of Lowe and Beckett being anything more than serviceable fantasy pitchers are gone. I think there will be a good number of wins and strikeouts from this quintet, but I believe Beckett and Lowe will drag down the WHIP and ERA. The bullpen is decent, but not great. Axford needs to prove he's for real, no one knows Kimbrell's role in ATL, Capps will probably be setting up by the All Star break, and Massett and Belisle are solid. I think this group will compete in holds week to week, but will find saves hard to come by later in the season.

Depth Outlook: Thin
Rich could have as many as three dead spots on this roster with Cabrera, Brantley and Trout riding the pine. Barton is solid and should probably be DH'ing to help with the walks. Betancourt and Valencia should be able to help out in short stints. I like Peavy and Westbrook on the bench - I think Peavy is an excellent sleeper this season. Rich might consider releasing Zumaya and picking up another SP for extra depth.

Friday, March 4, 2011

emlb Preseason Power Poll: 5-8

8. Dallas Redbirds (Consolation Bracket, 2nd in East)

Offensive Outlook: Slightly Above Average
Doyel's team looks a lot like the team that made it to the finals last season. No doubt Doyel is banking on similar results, but I wouldn't count on it. Despite the three-headed monster of Howard, Cano and Holliday, this is a team that is largely devoid of power. It will struggle to compete in HR, BB and RBI most weeks. It will, however, be strong when it comes to average, runs and steals. He will have some speed to deal for power when the need arises; but will he pull the trigger?

Pitching Outlook: Above Average
Once again, the starting pitching is a major strength for Doyel's team. This quintet will be extremely competitive when it comes to wins, strike outs, ERA and WHIP. It is probably one of the top four rotations in the league. I'm not a fan of most of the pen. Clippard and Burnett came from nowhere last year and play for a lousy team; I think they will regress some. Lyon is a WHIP killer with frequent blow-ups in his history and his stats last year were probably more of an aberration than a sign of what's to come. Soriano is an elite set-up man, but that's not why Doyel traded for him. Thornton is nasty and figures to close, but has little experience in that role.

Depth Outlook: Average
Bourjos is an unknown right down to the role he'll play. Headley, Sanchez and Ruiz are more valuable in real life than in fantasy. There is decent if unspectacular pitching depth.

7. Michigan Miracles (Consolation Bracket, 2nd in Texas Division)

Offensive Outlook: Above Average
There is a very good offensive core here. There is a good amount of power (Gonzalez, Hill, Young, Rios, Wells), which is complimented by a ton of speed (Rios, Victorino, Desmond). He's going to need rebound seasons from Hill and Suzuki in terms of average, but should hit for a very respectable team average. This team will struggle to compete in walks most weeks with a ton of free swingers on the roster, and what will they do when Ordonez eventually gets hurt?

Pitching Outlook: Slightly Above Average
If you look at last season's stats, the rotation looks good on paper. Then you realize the rotation is made up of two guys who don't miss bats (Hudson, Cahill), two guys who had extreme career years (Lewis, Myers), and one legit stud. I'd bat both Cahill and Hudson see their ERA's spike by close to a full run, and the WHIPs will go up, too. Myers and Lewis seem like they are in line for a regression. The bullpen is solid. I think this team finds its self behing the 8-ball in K's, W's and possibly WHIP this season.

Depth Outlook: Questionable
I see a lot of risks and wild cards on this bench. LaPorta and Borbon are complete unknowns. Hall and Rivera could wind up with inconsistent playing time. Peralta is in decline and while his speed is enticing, it seems to me the Nationals would prefer not to have to count on him. There is decent pitching depth.

6. North Texas Rangers (Wild Card, 3rd in West)

Offensive Outlook: Above Average
There is a great deal of fire power here. The lineup is loaded with power (Tex, Wright, Kinsler, Hamilton, Posey, Stanton) and has some speed to boot (Wright, Kinsler, Escobar). It's a lineup that should be competitive in average, home runs, runs batted in, walks and runs. I don't think Alex Gonzalez matches last year's power totals and his average will be a drag. Matsui and Thome are OK, but there is no telling how many AB's they'll get or if they can stay healthy.


Pitching Outlook: Average
Not a huge fan of the starting staff here. Obviously, Felix is a beast and Hanson is promising. I see a major regression for CJ Wilson this season and I don't think Adrian gets anything from Webb all season. I'm also not crazy about counting on Beuhrle in the rotation since he gives up plenty of base runners and doesn't miss bats. Adrian will probably need to use Matuzs more than he'd like this season.

Depth Outlook: Decent
Adrian has a bunch of guys who could fill in admirably for a week or two, but any extended injuries or slumps by his starters would kill him. His most reliable reserve is Orlando Hudson, other than that he has a bunch of guys who are barely replacement level. I'm guessing there will be some turnover on his pitching bench because Howell is hurt and Pineda may not start the year in the majors. He's going to need good innings out of Matusz at some point.

5. Julian Javelina (Wild Card, 2nd in West)

Offensive Outlook: Explosive
This is a very balanced and diverse group of offensive talents. The first thing that pops out is the power (six regulars who should top 20 HR, five who should approach or top 25). But this team should also be very competitive in the other categories. The team figures to compete in average, home runs, runs batted in, runs and walks most weeks. They would probably benefit from adding some speed.

Pitching Outlook: Very Good
The starting staff is extremely deep and well-rounded. It's led by three players who should top 200 IP, provide very good ERA's and approach or top 200K's each. Then you have two youngsters on the rise who should pitch 190-200 innings, post ERA's around 3.50, and miss 170+ bats. The bullpen obviously lacks a closer, but should be very good in the other categories. There are four relievers who should post 20-25 holds and provide better than league average totals in ERA and WHIP. The pen should, for the most part, also provide healthy strike out totals. The lack of closers is what kept this group out of the top four.

Depth Outlook: Excellent
There are capable and productive backups at almost every position, and even a few guys who could find their way into outfield and utility rotations if they play well. Torres and Venable provide speed off the bench and one of them could steal time from Soriano if they play well. Davis is a blossoming star at 1B and will see time at utility. Casilla is the everyday 2B or SS in Minnesota and could provide some speed. Pieryznski is solid enough. The pitching depth is also solid. Guthrie is an innings eater who improved last season and Niese is a young hurler with upside. Mark Lowe could get saves chances if Feliz starts.