Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Handicapping the West

Most fantasy leagues are cyclical in terms of the balance of power, and it seems the eMLB is no different. After years of seeing the East dominate, the divisions have been re-aligned and the balance of power has finally shifted westward. Javelina GM Jamie Hoyle handicaps the Western division and answers some questions about teams around the league.

How do you see the West shaking out?
Depending on what happens with injuries and trades, I think there are two or three teams that are capable of winning the division. I don't see any reason to believe the Javelina won't win the division, but it should ultimately come down to us and the Rangers, and the Bums may sneak in there.

What do you think your team's biggest strength is?
That's tough to say, because I think we are fairly balanced. If I had to pick one area, I'd probably go with the starting pitching. That's the one area of our team that is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the division - at least in my opinion.

What do you feel is your biggest weakness?
I think we have two or three potential problem areas. I'd like to find a second closer at some point, we could find ourselves in need of an upgrade at short, and we could probably need another hitter capable of drawing a walk.

Can you give us a detailed break down of how you see the division shaping up?
If I were pressed, I'd line up the division as follows:

1. Julian Javelina - I think we have a very deep balanced lineup. I would say our pitching will carry us more often than not. I believe Morneau, Bay and Thomas provide and nice foundation of power for a lineup stocked with 25-30 hr hitters. You have to love Santana and Harang atop the rotation, and we have some very nice sleeper candidates in Haren and Erv Santana at the back of the rotation. Like I said, I'd like to find a closer along the way, and I am always tinkering.

2. North Texas Rangers - I think they're going to hit - alot. I like their offensive potential around the infield, and think they are going to pop the ball. I think they need to tweak their OF to be serious contenders. I don't trust Ordonez, Roberts or Gonzo to stay healthy and they don't have much pop in the OF. I also think Delmon Young is a year or two away from being a power threat. Their pitching scares me, and not in a good way. Penny is an injury risk, someone I think is certain to be on the DL at some point. Their rotation as a whole needs to concentrate on pitching and not throwing, and their candidates for the 4-5 spots all have problems.

3. Encinitas Beach Bums - On paper you might think they're better, but you have to look closer. I believe Sexson, Kent, Giles and Schmidt are all in decline. Kent will be hurt at some point this season, Giles' bat is too slow to hit the FB and too fast to hit the change up - the result is a lot of pop ups. Sexson isn't walking as much, which is an indicator that he's declining. Schmidt's heater has lost life and zip. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Freddy Sanchez slip a bit, and he's battling a knee injury. I think the rotation has other issues, too. I don't trust Cliff Lee - he was very hittable last season. I'm also not a fan of Buerhle or Bonser. I think Valverde and Dempster make their pen questionable.

4. Dallas Redbirds - I should point out that I think the Bums and Birds are fairly interchangeable. I think the Redbirds' starting pitching will carry them for much of the season. It's hard to argue against a top two of Big Z and Hamels, even though I do think some may overestimate Hamels' ability to make a major contribution this year. Pettitte will win some games, but his other stats may not be that great, and I think Garcia and Garland are very, very hittable. I do like the pen. I think the Redbirds' OF will be very good, which is nice because I don't like the infield - particularly up the middle.

5. Nor Cal Sluggers- This team probably fits in that interchangeable category, as well. I'm not a fan of their offense. The outfield is decent, made better by the addition of Sizemore, but won't hit for much of an average. Can Griffey stay healthy? Is Patterson for real? Can Swisher hit for a higher average? These are all big questions for this team. Delgado isn't getting younger, and neither are Durham or Hillenbrand. Outside of Delgado, I'm not a fan of the infield - I think it's loaded with players primed for a major decline. This team will need Halladay and Sheets to stay healthy and dominate because the rest of the rotation is going to be a problem. They walk too many hitters, don't make people miss any more, and don't stay healthy. This is a team that could see all five starters spend time on the DL. They are going to miss Josh Johnson and their bullpen will be hit-or-miss - pardon the pun.

6. Bay Area Big Dawgs - No es bueno. For those who don't speak Spanish, that means "It's not good". This team has problems. There isn't too much pop, Nick Johnson may not even play this year, the lineup is as old as dirt (maybe older), and the pitching is an odd combination of promise and ER residents. I think it will be a very long year for this team. Only Columbus keeps them out of the 18th spot for the season.






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