There is a great deal of chatter about Berg taking a SP to prepare for 2012, but I don't see it. Halladay may be the best player in this draft on some boards, but I am not a believer in drafting a pitcher #1 overall in a league driven by offense. It might make more sense to give Fielder a 3-year contract given the depth of next year's draft, but I'm guessing he gets a five year deal.
2. Mid Michigan Tigers: Tim Lincecum, SP
It could be Halladay or Lincecum here, but I think Lincecum's youth wins out. Though I am not a big believer in giving SP three year contracts, I think Lincecum gets one in this case. It's risky, but the rewards could be just a great.
3. Charlotte Orios: Chase Utley, 2B
There has been talk that Broskey would take a pitcher here, but I don't think so. I believe his last minute trade for Jimenez allows him to feel comfortable passing in Halladay and instead taking the star 2B. Utley is getting up there in age, but he'll probably get a 3-year deal in this spot.
4. San Antonio Fire Ants: Roy Halladay, SP
Sankey has a solid offensive core in place and needs pitching with Santana due to miss a few months to start the year. Halladay, Johnson, Santana would be a formidable 1-2-3 if Santana comes back healthy.
5. Olivet Killer Eagles: Adam Dunn, 1B
I think Larry traded up for Dunn, and I think he finds himself in an excellent spot to gamble a little. He can still get his man in Dunn here and play a little chicken with the next few picks to see if he can get Kemp or Werth at 9. In my opinion, what Larry does here has a big impact on the next 4-5 picks.
6. Arizona Desert Swarm: Matt Kemp, OF
I personally think Kemp is a little overrated (lazy) and is probably a better pick at 6 than he would have been in the top four. Loads of potential here, but I don't believe he 'gets it' enough to be a star. Still, a solid 3-year player for a team in need of outfield help.
7. Springfield Flying Squirrels: Jimmy Rollins, SS
Anson's plan comes together and he gets his SS.
8. Hackensack Bulls: Kendry Morales, 1B
Like I've said before, as much as Ben might like pitching, he'd be foolish not to take a bat of some sort here. Frankly, James Loney sucks. Morales makes all the sense in the world here and is a solid 3-year player.
9. Olivet Killer Eagles: Jayson Werth, OF
Larry's plan comes together and he gets the two guys he wanted most. I think Dunn is a better pick than Kemp at 5 because you know what you're getting, and I think Werth is a better all around fantasy player than Kemp. So Larry gambles and gets two great 3-year players, both of whom I believe are better players than Kemp.
10. Rochester Red Sox: CC Sabathia, SP
There is lots of speculation about Buccholz here - and I've bought into it - but I agree with Renner in that it doesn't make sense. There are five or six pitchers in this draft who are better than Buccholz right now, starting with the big fella. He can get Buccholz in the second round.
11. Rochester Red Sox: Derek Jeter, SS
It would kill Rich to take two Yankees here, but they are probably the best players on the board at this point. I don't think either Buccholz or Elsbury make sense this early.
12. Springfield Flying Squirrels: Mat Latos, SP
It comes down to Latos and Kershaw, and you can't really go wrong with either.
13. Olivet Killer Eagles: Clayton Kershaw, SP
With Latos and CC gone, Larry opts for Kershaw.
14. South Texas Heat: Carlos Santana, C
I don't buy Berg taking Alvarez here because I believe he can be had later. I know Berg is high on Santana and with the general lack of talent at C, I think he opts to fill that spot.
15. Dallas Red Birds: Mariano Rivera, RP
I don't really think anyone else makes sense for Doyel here. He pretty much has to take him to atone for the Soriano deal.
16. Hackensack Bulls: Heath Bell, RP
The last remaining stud closer is off the board to end the first round.
5 comments:
When is the last time we had two closers taken in the first round (if ever)?
I think this mock draft and Anson's are probably the two most accurate so far.
Interesting how my 1.5 pick really shapes 6-13....
Wonder if Kemp and Rihanna splitting if he'll focus more in 2011? I guess I can't blame him from being distracted :)
In my opinion there are a couple golden rules in this league -(1) don't give a SP a 3-year contract and (2) NEVER take a closer in the first round. That said, I think Doyel has little choice and Ben will be tempted to get his closer early.
Larry, you hold the key to the entire middle of the draft IMO. With three first round picks you can impact what the next 8 guys do with their picks based on what you do with #5. Just my opinion.
Ill be passing on Sabathia and Jeter if they are at my pick. Buchholz wont be it either. Sorry.
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