Sunday, December 4, 2011

eMLB 2012 Mock Draft - Version 1

Here is my take on who goes where in the first round. With the exception of a couple of the newer owners, I think we all have pretty clear patterns we've established in making our draft picks. Here is how I see it:

1. Hackensack Bulls: Jose Bautista, 3B/OF
I just have a hard time seeing Ben pass on the single best player in the draft. While he can't go wrong with any of the top four guys in this draft, Bautista is heads and shoulders above the rest. I'm also convinced that the prime years spent as a utility player help extend his prime and make him less of a risk on a 5-year contract than most 31-year olds.

2. Oliver Killer Eagles: Robinson Cano, 2B
This pick makes the most sense for Larry because, in my opinion, he'll have an easier time moving Kelly Johnson during the winter meetings than he would Dunn or Morales. Plus, I think it's a toss-up between Cano and Tulo for the second best player in the draft based on position scarcity. Cano will look awfully good in the middle of the Eagles lineup for the next five years.

3. Michigan Miracles: Troy Tulowitzki, SS
I originally thought Adrian Gonzalez would go here, but now I think Renner takes the best short stop in baseball to build around. He really can't go wrong with either Gonzo or Tulo, but I think Tulo is the pick here. And Renner finally finds a worthy 5-year player after dumping Rios last season. Not a bad pickup.

4. Atlantic Surge: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
This pick probably comes down to Gonzo, Nelson Cruz and Jose Reyes. I'm not sure Cruz gets serious consideration this high in this particular draft, and the likely departure of Reyes from New York probably saves Squire from taking the hometown boy. Gonzo is the clear pick, and helps provide a nice offensive base for 2012 and beyond.

5. Julian Javelina: Justin Upton, OF
In this scenario, my pick would more than likely be J-Up. It would be a toss up between Upton and 'Cutch, but I actually think Upton has more upside as he matures. I think McCutchen is in love with his new-found power and will be less inclined to steal bases in the coming seasons. I guess my point here is I think Upton is closer to identifying what "his" game is than McCutchen is at this point.

6. Springfield Flying Squirrels of Republic: Andrew McCutchen, OF
This is a no-brainer. Anson LOVES McCutchen. Anson NEEDS McCutchen. Anson GETS McCutchen. In this scenario, Anson gets an exciting young player to build around before he hits his prime. He probably slaps that five-year deal on him, which might be a little premature, but at least he knows 'Cutch won't be going anywhere any time soon.

7. North Texas Rangers: Nelson Cruz, OF
Having watched a couple Rangers playoff games with Adrian, I know he has what we'll refer to as more than moderate man-wood for Mr. Cruz. (I think me messed himself on a couple of those game winning HR's) Well, here he is; all teed up for Adrian. There is no doubt some internal strife over the pick (with Andrus, Beltre, Cruz and Hamilton all sitting there, he's certain to take one and miss the other three), but I think this is the direction he ultimately chooses.

8. Charlotte Orios: Josh Hamilton, OF
This is a toss-up between Hamilton and Tex, which means it ultimately comes down to a guy you know will miss 20-40 games every year (Hamilton), or a guy who is almost certain to go 0-for April every year. In the end, I think Broskey opts to supplement a highly questionable and power-deficient outfield mix with a guy he knows will hit when healthy. Given his current outfield mix, a 3-year deal for Hamilton is a virtual lock.

9. Oviedo Knights: Mike Stanton, OF
I think Mike probably had his sights set on Hanley here, but the news of Reyes signing with the Marlins and Hanley's impending shift to 3B changes things. One lazy, potentially unproductive 3B on a fantasy roster is enough (Alvarez). Instead Mike takes arguably the best young slugger in the draft and slaps a 5-year contract on him.

10. Mid Michigan Tigers: Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B
Sure, Keith has two third basemen under contract, but both will be gone after 2012. Taking Hanley here allows him to possibly recoup some value at #10 overall, play him a short for a season, then move him to third. Not too shabby.

11. Gaylord Dingers: Jose Reyes, SS
I think Wagner probably gives serious consideration to Chris Young, Reyes and maybe Cliff Lee here, but ultimately decides to take the electric short stop. There is enough outfield depth in this draft that he should be able to fill his open spots with productive players, but it's too hard to fill short stop with these kinds of stats in most drafts.

12. San Antonio Fire Ants: Cliff Lee, SP
Sankey has so many needs at this point that he just needs to take the best available player on the board. In this scenario, that's probably Lee. A 1-2 punch of Lee and Hanson is a pretty good start to any rotation.

13. Dallas Red Birds: Cole Hamels, SP
Elvis Andrus seems like the logical pick here, but Doyel always wins with starting pitching. My guess he's fired up about the opportunity to draft the second best SP in this draft and field arguably the best staff in the league. I just don't see Doyel passing on another ace here since it would allow him to focus entirely on offense for the next several rounds.

14. Rochester Red Sox: Mark Teixiera, 1B
Rich could go in a number of directions here, but I think Tex is the pick, which would allow him to move Morse to the OF or Util spot. Tex is a lottery pick in almost any other season, but he slides a little bit here.


15. South Texas Heat: Rickie Weeks, 2B
Berg says he's looking 3B here, but I think it's a smoke screen. I think he's holding out hope that he can get Weeks here. I just have a hard time believing Berg can pass on a hometown guy here, especially one as productive as Weeks.

16. Arizona Desert Swarm: Joe Mauer, C
Sometimes you need to take a chance you wouldn't otherwise take when you're drafting at the bottom of the first round. On the one hand, Mauer is still just 28 and is two years removed from a mammoth season. On the other, he really hasn't been healthy for two years and it seems unlikely that he'll ever hit for the power he showed in 2009 again. Still, it's hard to find young catchers who have a knack for hitting for average and driving in runs.

1 comment:

Steve Berg said...

Good work. Hopefully others will post a mock draft soon to keep the winter news rolling.