Final Standings:
1. Oviedo Knights
2. Dallas Redbirds
3. Toldeo Mudhens
4. Atlantic Heat
Team Observations:
Oviedo Knights:
As is often the case, I think Mike's offensive fire power will eventually win out as it relates to a tight divisional race between he and Doyel. This offense should be capable of pounding out 5-6 offensive categories most weeks, which is a good thing when looking at the pitching. There is so much offensive fire power that it almost won't matter that Mike pissed away a 4th round pick, and probably another three year contract, on Carlos Gomez. Health will be crucial as an injury or two will expose a lack of quality depth.
I know Mike believes he can win without quality starting pitching, but damn. Granted, he has Hamels, and I do think Anderson will take a step forward this year. But beyond that there isn't much to be excited about. Iwakuma is OK, but probably better suited to being rotational depth. I think the lack of a swing and miss pitch will hurt Millone in the long run. I'm not sure a good half season makes Hammel worthy of being a regular fantasy SP. The bullpen should be a good source of strike outs and holds, but the inevitability of Marmol losing his job means there is a lack of saves in the long run. I think Mike will need Scott Baker to return to form quickly to help hold the rotation together.
Dallas Redbirds:
This is the proto-typical Doyel offense. Plenty of guys who hit for average and a ton of speed. His lineup is also likely to be light on power, run production and walks. If it were me, I would probably find a place to start Garrett Jones. I think it would probably be in Doyel's best interest to trade one of his speedsters for some additional power. There is no way he has enough power to be competitive in that category from week to week. There is some decent depth here. Doyel desperately needs Ellsbury to return to his MVP form for this offense to work.
This is an atypical Doyel rotation. Granted, it's top heavy, but slots 3-5 leave something to be desired. Hellickson doesn't miss any bats at all, which means he has little room for error. It seems unlikely he will continue to post solid ERA and WHIP totals. Hughes is OK, but will never be anything special due to inconsistencies with his command. Lynn needs to continue to develop for this rotation to work. It looks like the bullpen will be a good source of strike outs and holds, but rumors that Romo will share closing duties means there is no clear-cut source of saves. The pitching depth is adequate.
Toledo Mudhens:
Pujols, Phillips, Posey and Jennings make for what should be a solid offensive core; there just isn't anything else to get too excited about. Aside from Jennings this might be the worst outfield in league history. Sure, there is speed, but not much else. It looks to me like short stop and third base are also major concerns, particularly third base where it seems likely Gyorko is headed for Tucson to start the season. This offense will struggle greatly in virtually every offensive category outside of steals and maybe average. There isn't a great deal of quality depth there either with Hamilton, Olt and Myers unlikely to start the year in the majors.
The starting pitching, which may be among the top three or four in the league, will keep him in games all year. Obviously, Kershaw, Lee and Gonzalez don't need an introduction. That's a hell of a trio atop the rotation. I'm a big fan of Bailey after his second half last season, and I think he's just beginning to scratch the surface. He was probably the second best pick Brent made in terms of pure value next to Posey. Bauer, like a third of his offense, is headed back to AAA to start the year. The bullpen looks solid and should be a good source of strike outs and holds. The starting pitching depth isn't very good should someone get hurt.
Atlantic Surge:
The offense will be a struggle this year, but should improve as his new contract players progress through their contracts. The core of Jackson, Rizzo and Middlebrooks would be great for a dynasty league, but my guess is Rizzo and Middlebrooks are at least a year away from being the players Matt needs them to be. Hunter is starting his decline and his run production will fall off batting second. Marte is a wildcard who should provide speed and not much else. The rest of the lineup is essentially replacement players with little upside. There is decent depth to fill in for injured players, but no one you can count on for long stretches.
The pitching - ouch. Some bad contracts in his first two seasons limited his ability to improve the pitching. This pitching staff is loaded with injury-plagued, inconsistent pitchers who serve as nothing but a drain on a pitching staff. There just isn't anything there to count on outside of Greinke. Floyd and Pelfrey are wildly inconsistent and Harvey is still facing a steep learning curve. I like Worley a little, but he tends to be inefficient in terms of pitch count. The bullpen could have three guys with 20+ holds, which will give him some trade chips late in the season. Cashner could be a major wildcard for him, assuming he wins a rotation spot and proves he can stay on the field. There is little to no pitching depth in the event of an injury.
Toledo Mudhens:
Pujols, Phillips, Posey and Jennings make for what should be a solid offensive core; there just isn't anything else to get too excited about. Aside from Jennings this might be the worst outfield in league history. Sure, there is speed, but not much else. It looks to me like short stop and third base are also major concerns, particularly third base where it seems likely Gyorko is headed for Tucson to start the season. This offense will struggle greatly in virtually every offensive category outside of steals and maybe average. There isn't a great deal of quality depth there either with Hamilton, Olt and Myers unlikely to start the year in the majors.
The starting pitching, which may be among the top three or four in the league, will keep him in games all year. Obviously, Kershaw, Lee and Gonzalez don't need an introduction. That's a hell of a trio atop the rotation. I'm a big fan of Bailey after his second half last season, and I think he's just beginning to scratch the surface. He was probably the second best pick Brent made in terms of pure value next to Posey. Bauer, like a third of his offense, is headed back to AAA to start the year. The bullpen looks solid and should be a good source of strike outs and holds. The starting pitching depth isn't very good should someone get hurt.
Atlantic Surge:
The offense will be a struggle this year, but should improve as his new contract players progress through their contracts. The core of Jackson, Rizzo and Middlebrooks would be great for a dynasty league, but my guess is Rizzo and Middlebrooks are at least a year away from being the players Matt needs them to be. Hunter is starting his decline and his run production will fall off batting second. Marte is a wildcard who should provide speed and not much else. The rest of the lineup is essentially replacement players with little upside. There is decent depth to fill in for injured players, but no one you can count on for long stretches.
The pitching - ouch. Some bad contracts in his first two seasons limited his ability to improve the pitching. This pitching staff is loaded with injury-plagued, inconsistent pitchers who serve as nothing but a drain on a pitching staff. There just isn't anything there to count on outside of Greinke. Floyd and Pelfrey are wildly inconsistent and Harvey is still facing a steep learning curve. I like Worley a little, but he tends to be inefficient in terms of pitch count. The bullpen could have three guys with 20+ holds, which will give him some trade chips late in the season. Cashner could be a major wildcard for him, assuming he wins a rotation spot and proves he can stay on the field. There is little to no pitching depth in the event of an injury.
9 comments:
After reading this writeup it sounds like the East Division is the AAA Division of eMLB.
It kind of is.
I don't think Reynolds has the most talent in his division, but I do think he will make the right moves to win the division - something that we aren't sure about the two guys that could have contending teams.
Talent isn't always in front of you. Those picks rounds 10-end are the critical ones. My season hinges on the upside of my SP and the ability to find stable closers. Hitting I am not as worried about. Just health only thing stopping me. Last year I was more concerned and even had Red Sox winning division. I was hoping to make it as WC. This year my road is easier schedule wise which should help offset any issues my team will have. Doyel's team is the same every year. If we were in a points league his team would be solid but we are not. He wastes so many stats and that's going to hurt him. Maybe someday he will understand the H2H league.
I think your later round picks were fine. I am just not sold on Carlos Gomez in the 3rd, Brett Anderson in the 4th, Manny Machado in the 5th, and Iwakuma in the 10th. I think there were much better players at the same positions that were taken later.
That being said, I thought the trade for Mark Reynolds was a solid move on your part -- which leads to my point that you will make the moves to get your team in the playoffs.
Berg I can understand that but I looked at the post draft and you say Gomez early but my other choices were Revere/Victorino/Ichiro/Reddick/Kubel. After looking at those choices Gomez had the better chance at repeating and improving over the rest. So when all things equal I will pick higher upside. Estrada/Miley/Parker/Niese. Again I would have selected Anderson again. Machado was the real risky pick. I think it works out well with Reynolds trade which gave me depth. Not sure Iwakuma at round 10 is much of an issue. It's important but again well worth the risk based on what we saw. Only time will tell if they were right decisions but as of right now I would have made same selections.
I wouldn't have taken Revere over Carlos Gomez, but I would have taken the others. Anderson wasn't a terrible pick, but I have questions about how many innings he can throw, and what kind of counting stats will he produce even if he can throw a decent # of innings. Machado was a terrible pick, which is why you went and snagged Mark Reynolds off your minor league squad (ie - Broskey). Looking back on it I am sure you would have much rather taken a closer and gotten these guys a round or two later, or someone very similar to them.
Iwakuma isn't terrible, but I would rather have Erasmo Ramirez and he went much later than Iwakuma did.
All in all, I think you win the division not because you have the most talent now, but because you will fix problems throughout the season.
I was debating on a closer in round 5 but I know Machado would not have been there round 7 which was my next pick and there were plenty of RP. Unfortunately that was one of my few desperate picks. Yet I felt I was fortunate to get Perkins round 7. If these were known solid picks they would have been taken earlier. I am really excited to see how this plays out. I real think I got some solid value in my SP with Anderson/Milone/Ogando/Iwakuma/Hammel. All have high upsides and only the only pick that I took in a risky position was Anderson.
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