Final Division Standings:
1. Hackensack Bulls
2. Michigan Miracles
3. South Texas Heat
4. San Antonio FireAnts
Team Observations:
Hackensack Bulls:
I thought Ben did an excellent job of supplementing an already talented roster with a very patient, steady draft. With one or two exceptions I thought he did a nice job of squeezing as much value as he could out of each pick. He has solid power, is likely to lead the division (if not the league) in steals, and should hit for a good average. I think a stronger third season from Hosmer rounds out the offense nicely. Losing Granderson hurts, but if he heals quickly he'll still get enough at bats to produce at a high level.
His real strength is his pitching. He is likely to win the majority, if not all, of the pitching categories from week to week. His starting five is virtually untouchable if Lincecum bounces back. I would expect some regression in Jim Johnson this year, but he should still eek 65-80 saves out of his closers. His pitching depth should provide good trade fodder for late in the year. Look out for the bullpen if Wilson hooks on with someone and winds up closing late in the year.
2. Michigan Miracles
Renner started with a good core heading into the draft, and made solid picks to start the draft, but I thought his draft tapered off after the first five or six rounds in terms of value. The only real question marks in his lineup are Cuddyer (health) and Joyce (playing time). It seems likely the signing of Kelly Johnson will push Zobrist to RF on a regular basis, which means Joyce becomes the 4th outfielder. This lineup should pound the ball, but struggle with drawing walks and stealing bases.
I think Renner took too many risks with pitching early in the draft. I felt be over-drafted guys like Estrada and Griffin fairly early on when, frankly, there were several pitchers still on the board who were just better and more proven. I'm not crazy about Dickey in the AL East and expect some real regression there. Renner will need to hope that Corey Luebke makes it back and is able to contribute quickly. I think the bullpen is going to be very good.
3. South Texas Heat
As always, Berg focused most of his attention early in the draft on his offense. Gone is Chris Young, and new to town are Dunn, Ramirez and Kubel. There is plenty of power and a good balance of people who take walks, but not much speed without a healthy Gardner. There may be reason for concern over Trumbo's second half, but plenty of reason for optimism over the continued development of Heyward and Kipnis. Obviously, getting a full season out of Tulo is crucial. I think it's only a matter of time before Ross replaces Berkman at DH full time. There is some solid depth here if it's needed.
Like Renner, I think Berg more or less ignored pitching early on. Granted, he was able to re-draft Sale; but other than that there isn't much certainty in the rotation. Can Marcum, who like in spite of his fragility, stay healthy? Can Billingsley, a fantasy tease, stay healthy and become consistent? And who knows what to expect of Burnett; though it seems likely his numbers will regress in terms of hits, walks, ERA and WHIP. I do think Berg managed to build a fairly balanced bullpen.
4. San Antonio FireAnts
I actually like Sankey's team, but this division is so incredibly deep in terms of quality teams that it will be an up-hill battle without a few career seasons mixed in. There is a lot of power here, the team should hit for a respectable average, and they should draw their share of walks. Sankey will have to find speed during the season. The team will be even better with Ruiz returns from suspension and pushes Alonso to the bench. I think two keys to this offense are Sandoval and Cabrera. The team needs Sandoval to approach or eclipse 20 HR, and a return of the 20/20 Melky from 2011 would really round out the offense. The lack of depth will be an issue for this team.
Next to Ben, I think Sankey did a good job of putting together some quality pitching without overpaying too much. There is plenty of upside in Miley and Parker, and Jackson is a nice workhorse. I think it's a matter of time before McCarthy replaces Nolasco. If Garcia is healthy and returns to form, he has the makings of a solid rotation, though it may be light in strike outs. He only has one closer, but he has a ton of solid MRP capable of providing holds.
Overall:
Ben's team is loaded, especially if Hosmer takes a step forward this year. His team will probably really take off when Grandy returns. I don't think there is much separating Berg and Renner in the standings; they'll bot hit a ton and have weeks where their pitching really hurts them. I think Sankey could surprise some people in this division, but only if he stays on top of things and makes the changes he needs to late in the season. The advantage Berg and Renner have is they are extremely active and willing to make tough decisions to improve their team. We don't really know for sure if we can say that about Ben and Sankey has never been extremely active in-season.
1. Hackensack Bulls
2. Michigan Miracles
3. South Texas Heat
4. San Antonio FireAnts
Team Observations:
Hackensack Bulls:
I thought Ben did an excellent job of supplementing an already talented roster with a very patient, steady draft. With one or two exceptions I thought he did a nice job of squeezing as much value as he could out of each pick. He has solid power, is likely to lead the division (if not the league) in steals, and should hit for a good average. I think a stronger third season from Hosmer rounds out the offense nicely. Losing Granderson hurts, but if he heals quickly he'll still get enough at bats to produce at a high level.
His real strength is his pitching. He is likely to win the majority, if not all, of the pitching categories from week to week. His starting five is virtually untouchable if Lincecum bounces back. I would expect some regression in Jim Johnson this year, but he should still eek 65-80 saves out of his closers. His pitching depth should provide good trade fodder for late in the year. Look out for the bullpen if Wilson hooks on with someone and winds up closing late in the year.
2. Michigan Miracles
Renner started with a good core heading into the draft, and made solid picks to start the draft, but I thought his draft tapered off after the first five or six rounds in terms of value. The only real question marks in his lineup are Cuddyer (health) and Joyce (playing time). It seems likely the signing of Kelly Johnson will push Zobrist to RF on a regular basis, which means Joyce becomes the 4th outfielder. This lineup should pound the ball, but struggle with drawing walks and stealing bases.
I think Renner took too many risks with pitching early in the draft. I felt be over-drafted guys like Estrada and Griffin fairly early on when, frankly, there were several pitchers still on the board who were just better and more proven. I'm not crazy about Dickey in the AL East and expect some real regression there. Renner will need to hope that Corey Luebke makes it back and is able to contribute quickly. I think the bullpen is going to be very good.
3. South Texas Heat
As always, Berg focused most of his attention early in the draft on his offense. Gone is Chris Young, and new to town are Dunn, Ramirez and Kubel. There is plenty of power and a good balance of people who take walks, but not much speed without a healthy Gardner. There may be reason for concern over Trumbo's second half, but plenty of reason for optimism over the continued development of Heyward and Kipnis. Obviously, getting a full season out of Tulo is crucial. I think it's only a matter of time before Ross replaces Berkman at DH full time. There is some solid depth here if it's needed.
Like Renner, I think Berg more or less ignored pitching early on. Granted, he was able to re-draft Sale; but other than that there isn't much certainty in the rotation. Can Marcum, who like in spite of his fragility, stay healthy? Can Billingsley, a fantasy tease, stay healthy and become consistent? And who knows what to expect of Burnett; though it seems likely his numbers will regress in terms of hits, walks, ERA and WHIP. I do think Berg managed to build a fairly balanced bullpen.
4. San Antonio FireAnts
I actually like Sankey's team, but this division is so incredibly deep in terms of quality teams that it will be an up-hill battle without a few career seasons mixed in. There is a lot of power here, the team should hit for a respectable average, and they should draw their share of walks. Sankey will have to find speed during the season. The team will be even better with Ruiz returns from suspension and pushes Alonso to the bench. I think two keys to this offense are Sandoval and Cabrera. The team needs Sandoval to approach or eclipse 20 HR, and a return of the 20/20 Melky from 2011 would really round out the offense. The lack of depth will be an issue for this team.
Next to Ben, I think Sankey did a good job of putting together some quality pitching without overpaying too much. There is plenty of upside in Miley and Parker, and Jackson is a nice workhorse. I think it's a matter of time before McCarthy replaces Nolasco. If Garcia is healthy and returns to form, he has the makings of a solid rotation, though it may be light in strike outs. He only has one closer, but he has a ton of solid MRP capable of providing holds.
Overall:
Ben's team is loaded, especially if Hosmer takes a step forward this year. His team will probably really take off when Grandy returns. I don't think there is much separating Berg and Renner in the standings; they'll bot hit a ton and have weeks where their pitching really hurts them. I think Sankey could surprise some people in this division, but only if he stays on top of things and makes the changes he needs to late in the season. The advantage Berg and Renner have is they are extremely active and willing to make tough decisions to improve their team. We don't really know for sure if we can say that about Ben and Sankey has never been extremely active in-season.
5 comments:
This division is one of the hardest to predict because there are a lot of good teams in it. Still I see Berg has the most depth to adjust as the season moves on. Trading at deadline key. Fire ants did great job drafting. Renner well I think he lost it when the easy picks were done. His teams bench is filled with super utility guys. Plus he needs one year wonders to repeat. IMO a crash an burn this year.
Crash and burn is a bit extreme, but I do think that Renner reached through much of the second half of his draft and that could hurt him later on. I do like the FireAnts team; I just couldn't rank them ahead of teams with that had so much premium talent to work with. I was initially going to rank them second in the division, but I think the need a ton of breaks and increased activity for that to happen.
I think this is the year that undervaluing pitching comes back to haunt Berg and Renner. Both of those rotations have major implosion potential. That said, their offenses are good enough to keep them in contention most weeks even if the pitching struggles.
I wouldn't say that I undervalued pitching, but I did undervalue SP compared to RP. I do have some holes now, as everyone does, but I think I will be able to trade off some power throughout the season to fill those gaps (if guys play close to their expectations).
I do agree that Femmel is probably the team to beat.
That's what I meant Berg, that you undervalued starting pitching.
Berg meant to say that Renner is the team to beat.
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