Thursday, March 14, 2013

eMLB Pre-Season Predictions: West Division

Final Standings:
1.  Springfield Flying Squirrels
2.  Julian Javelina
3.  North Texas Rangers
4.  Arizona Desert Swarm

Team Observations:

Springfield Flying Squirrels:
This offense is frighteningly good.  While I do expect some regression in Willingham's power totals this year, I think the continued maturation of Freeman and Moustakas combined with a slight bounce back from Pence should help mitigate that somewhat.  There is a ton of power up and down the lineup, they will produce plenty of runs, and they should be competitive in walks.  Even with Trout on the roster there are really only two players capable of swiping 20+ bases.  The bench is a little sketchy, with most of his backups being part-time players on their major league teams.

While I'm not a huge believer in Haren staying healthy and I think Adam over-drafted Minor, I do think a bounce back from Halladay is likely.  If that happens the trio of Halladay, Felix and Wainright should be good enough to off-set inconsistencies from the other two starters.  He shoud get 180-200 strike outs to go with solid ERA and WHIP totals from 60% of his rotation.  The bullpen should be a solid source of strike outs, holds, ERA and WHIP, but saves will be a struggle all season.  There isn't a great deal of depth on the pitching staff outside of Cahill.

Julian Javelina:
I think the key word for my team is balance.  I may not have a collection of bombers, but what I do have is a collection of eight every day players who should hit a minimum of 20 home runs while providing very good run production.  This lineup also has as many as five players who are capable of drawing 60-70 walks and stealing 15 bases apiece.  Ideally I'd like to add a little speed at some point, but overall I like my offense.  I don't have as much depth as I would like, although I do think Aaron Hicks is going to be a sneaky source of speed once he wins the Twins' CF job.  I'll need to find better middle infield depth at some point.

I think from top to bottom I have the best pitching staff in the division.  The lone true wild card in my rotation is CJ Wilson, but I believe his uneven second half was the result of the bone chips in his elbow.    If he bounces back, as I expect he will, I should have five very good pitchers in my starting rotation - three of whom are capable of posting 180+ strike outs.  What sets my pitching staff apart in this division is my bullpen which, as of now, boasts three closers.  While it remains likely that Brandon League could lose his job at some point I do expect Parnell to hold onto the Mets' job over gas can Frank Francisco.

North Texas Rangers:
This is one of the better teams Adrian has had but, as usual, it's fairly top heavy.  He's relying on guys like Kinsler, Votto, Beltre, Kemp and Upton to carry him while the others just chip in where they can.  I don't expect Kemp or Beltre to disappoint, and it's probably likely that Votto bounces back; but Votto was seriously dragging that bad leg in the playoffs so Adrian has to hope he's fully healthy.  I believe Kinsler's days as an elite fantasy player are nearing their end, but he should still be productive.  Adrian's biggest advantage on offense within the division is the speed, with as many as five players capable of stealing 20+ bases.  The depth is pretty good, but much of his bench has undefined roles.

When I look at his rotation I see a collection of injury-riddled players, head cases, and a general lack of strike outs.  I'm not sure I trust Morrow and Hanson to stay healthy, I know I don't trust Holland and Volquez to throw consistent strikes, and I would expect Medlen to come back to earth a little bit.  Personally, I would be very worried about relying on guys like Volquez and Holland.  The bullpen should be pretty good, but he'll have to find more saves somewhere if he wants to contend.  I think Adrian will be trolling for Sp depth much of the year, there are always injuries and he isn't very well equipped to weather more than one short term injury in the rotation.

Arizona Desert Swarm
The key word for this offense is speed.  Lots of it.  This is a team that will have a number of potential trade partners when contenders are looking to fill gaps at the deadline.  There are a couple solid building blocks here; Wright, Rios, and Fowler.  There are also a couple decent stop-gaps in Pierzynski and Beltran.  This offense should score plenty of runs, hit for a solid average and be competitive in steals.  There is precious little power and run production here.  The depth is OK, but there are a few guys with undefined roles.

Josh built a solid pitching foundation for 2014 by taking Price, Niese and Cueto early on.  I happen to think Ricky Romero will bounce back and provide a nice trade chip late in the season.  I think between arm and back injuries, Santant is essentially done being more than a nice fill in.  Josh should be pretty competitive in ERA, WHIP, wins and saves while struggling to compete in strike outs and holds.  I think Josh will be looking for more rotation depth during the season depending on how McDonald and Cole perform.

3 comments:

Mike said...

Don't see Halladay bounce back. I think he is really falling apart fast. Velocity down. He throws in the low to mid 80's he better have a knuckleball.

JamieMHoyle said...

Maddux threw in the low to mid 80's for years with a great deal of success. You can have success like that, particularly with his arsenal, during the regular season when the zones are a little bigger. It just doesn't work in the post season when the zones shrink.

I'm not saying he's going to go back to sub-3 ERA, WHIP of 1 and 200+ K's. But I do think his ERA will be sub-4 and he will generally be more effective than he was last year.

Mike said...

You can have success throwing like that but you have to adapt to it. Moyer is a good example of that but I am not sure Halladay can. He has never been that type of pitcher. We will find out this year but if Spring training is any kind of precursor I think we see him worse.